Publications

The impact of climate change on global agriculture has been noticeable in recent decades, with rapid trendsaffecting various agricultural regions. As we look to the future, concerns about food security arise, promptingquestions about the potential effects on aggregate productivity. Numerous factors, such as population growth,income disparities, dietary preferences, disease incidence, and competing demands for land and water resources,will influence global food security in the coming decades. While studies indicate that the overall food supplyworldwide may not be seriously jeopardized by projected climate changes, there is a growing consensus that foodinsecurity in Africa will intensify. The risk of hunger is expected to increase both in terms of percentage andabsolute numbers throughout the century. Despite projections suggesting a relatively minimal impact on theglobal average supply of calories in the next few decades, ranging from close to zero to potentially 20% to 30% ofoverall yield trends, the complexity of the issue is underscored by significant regional variations. The globalperspective on food security conceals nuanced changes at smaller scales, which could have substantial implicationseven if overall production is maintained. To mitigate uncertainties in understanding global impacts, this paperrecommends improving estimates of global warming rates and the responsiveness of crop yields to both warmingand increased carbon dioxide levels. The responsiveness of yields is intricately linked to various factors, includinggenetic improvements made to crops, making it essential to address these variables for a more accurate assessmentof future scenarios.Keywords: Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, Food Security, Global Warming, Crop Yield